Tharwalizations

Conflict Watch, July 27, 2006

Somalia

Countdown for another regional disaster is currently taking place. Both Ethiopia and the Somali Sharia militias are arming themselves and a showdown seems to be looming. Eritrea is playing its part in an attempted pay back at Ethiopia over their previous entanglements not too long ago.

Darfur

The fragile nature of the situation in Darfur continues to forebode ill for the efforts aimed at brining about a successful conclusion to the conflict. The recently peace agreement will not work on its own, some major developments need to take place on the grounds in order to bring the fighting to an end and allow relief efforts to reach the isolated communities where they are most needed.

Aceh 

Follow up is all needed to ensure the success of peace agreements. The end result is not the agreements themselves but the realities that they would create on the ground. It is amazing how many peace deals falter due to lack of follow up. Troubles in Aceh at this stage, and considering the recent environmental disasters that the provinces had suffered could easily lead to a new humanitarian crisis.

Afghanistan

The Taliban are rearing their ugly heads again. The War on Terror’s classic and consummate victory seems more in tatters than ever before, because the follow up was lacking. Not enough aid was assigned for local development and reconstruction, and this allowed time for the Taliban to continue to find good recruitment conditions in enough parts of the country to start a new campaign. They will likely fail on the long run, but not before they make a mockery out of America’s most decisive victory in the War on Terror.

Hidden Currents

The continued influx of refugees from Lebanon into Syria is adding more pressure on that country's economy already burdened by its having to cope with over 1 million Iraqi refugees. Could situation lead to an unexpected eruption of hostilities? A serious clash between Iraqi refugees and local residents has already taken place a few weeks ago in the poor suburb of Jaramana on the outskirts of Damascus. Authorities seemed to have been caught off-guard and their reaction was not as swift as one would expect from a police state. But then, Syriais becoming an increasingly fragile country, and a number of clashes between its various sectarian and ethnic groups have already taken place over the last few years. A pattern might indeed be emerging and the situation could take a nasty turn in the not so distant future.

Of Cats and Guilt

The cat-and-mouse game between regular armies and “resistance” fighters has always had a heavy toll on the civilian population and the basic infrastructure of the countries involved. It has always served to undermine the potential for democracy as well. Still, a democracy did emerge out of the rubble in Germany and Japan following WWII, and one hopes that this may still be the case for Lebanon as well, albeit all indications point to the possibility that the wrong elements might end up running things in Lebanon, once the dust settles. The elements will lord over a virtual desolation, but they will be the lords.

But then, the souls of most of our people have been talibanized long before the onset of this mayhem. Now, our cherished structures are following the lead. Desolation within translates into desolation without. External dabbling is still to be blamed, and for a lot of things, but especially, for showing us what was lurking within us all the while. Israel is denuding us. And We are all guilty. We are all to blame.

Shutting Down Guantanamo

Guantanamo is a disgrace. No one can deny that, and the recent ruling to the effect that the Bush administration had violated both American military law and the Geneva Convention in ordering the military tribunals comes as an official endorsement of point of view. Indeed, and due to the fact that such a glaring abuse of human rights is being perpetrated by the very administration that is supposed to champion the cause of democracy and human rights around the world should naturally be noted and condemned by people from around the world.

However, people from the Middle East in particular should think twice before dwelling too much on this point, the prison systems operated by their own government are far worse and date way back in time. Moreover, their silence in this regard, while understandable, is one of the main reasons why their dictatorial regimes continue to rule even after so many decades of misrule, oppression and corruption, and why American and international troops are now back in their midst.

Oppression breeds ignorance, and the admixture of the two attracts more overt foreign dabbling and intervention. The battle against abuse, even one perpetrated by far away countries, begins within. Fighting against the internal enemy should be the first priority for the reformers of the region. For once we shut down our own prisons, there will be no more Guantanamos.

Getting it Right!

Getting the right to vote is not a guarantor of anything, except a peace transfer of power. Women will not necessarily vote for women, and the best candidate in character and message do not necessarily win. Elections are above all, about organization.

Kuwaiti elections have been a mixed bag, reformist candidates won, but so did Islamists candidates, while not a single female candidate got elected, despite the fact that women were voting for the very first time in Kuwait history. All in all though, another important step on the path of democratization was just taken in Kuwait, but there is still much to learn.