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June 20, 2006

Comments

Alex

Ammar are you trying to create the Ghazi Kanaan type of problems for Asef Shawkat? you want them in Damascus to start worrying that "Washington" is backing Asef agaist Bashar?

:)

I'm joking.

Interesting post. I will add the following:

Not all strong men want ot be "president". Asef could be happy playing the role he currently plays. Remember he powerful Ali Douba? many claimed that after Hafez, Ali Douba was surely going to assume the presidency. He did not.

You met Asef Shawkat. Do you see him being happy and natural playing "a president"? giving speeches at mother's day, opening a new plastics factory in Homs, planting trees in Aleppo ...

Both Asef, and Bushra elAssad never tried, and never seemed to enjoy, to play a public role, despite being very influencial. Do you see them reversing this style?

Besides, with Bashar looking more like he knows what he is doing do you see it wise for Asef unnecessarily rock the boat?

So, I would say it is possible, but very unlikely,at leat these days.

Fares

Ammar,

Great post, a great hope for ending this regime is infighting within the power circles although I doubt it that anyone of them can improve the country.

All what the new number 1 would do is make cosmetic changes then things would revert back.

But what change this way does is reduce the legitimacy in the eyes of people...However we don't know what the people want and they definitely don't believe that they can make any change.

Question for Ammar and Alex, Does Ali Habib have any real chances of taking command and improve the Syrian-US relations???

Freedom for Michel Kilo and prisoners of Conscience
Fares

Ammar

Actually Alex, Bushra and Assef have a made a number of public appearances in Bashar's style over the years, especially during the Damascus International Book Festival, but with little media coverage seeing that insisting on media coverage would signal a clear challenge to Bashar, and no, they are not necessarily interested in doing that at this stage.

For now the plan, it seems, is about assuming as much powers as possible in order to become the de factor rulers. Then, they will wait for the right moment to go public. We are obviously still in phase one.

The confidence with which I seem to make this assessment is indeed based on my meetings with Chawkat and the dismissive way in which he referred to Bashar and Asmaa.

I actually don’t have any interest in setting Assef for a Ghazi-like ending. If anything, I actually wish him and the rest of the gang a far better ending than they seem intent on bringing to themselves and to us all. I know you were joking Alex, still, I really like to stress here that I am not motivated by vendetta and, hopefully, I will never be.

Anonymous

The article have some truth to it specially if we consider that some figures in the regime might, and they should, be thinking about the setting after the international court in the back of their heads. The Harriri killing is not going to fade away and they know it and at the least some figures will be stabbed in the back, chastised or agreed on the sacrificed one, consequently some will loose their public support because of association. The regime is uneasy about this and they did not sort out yet whom they will send to the dark room for good 15 years in prison.

The Syrian Brit

The post offers a very interesting glimpse into the bizzare and intricate power structure within the regime..
My woorry is that the loser in any power struggle is going to be the Syrian people.. Remember those momentous days, when Hafez and Rif'at locked horns and were about to fight it out??. Rif'at response to Hafez's attempts to contain him was to station his forces, including tanks and artilery, on Quassion mountain overlooking Damascus, threatening to unleash his horrors!.. and he propbably would have done it!!..
God help us if a real power struggle erupts between Maher and Asif!!.. The two are ruthless thugs, and the Syrian people will pay a very high price.. and whoever wins, we lose!..

Ammar

This is my greatest fear indeed, SB. But, like it or not, tough times are waiting for us around the corner and we have no choice but to go there and face them.

The Syrian Brit

No choice, indeed!. Other than praying for a miracle that would rid us of the lot of them!..

Ammar

Amen and Hallelujah to that!

What is "Occupation"

why do something like post pic's of the bad guys, their houses & places they go too?

list their fax numbers, phone numbers emails?

list bank account info?

What is "Occupation"

why do something like post pic's of the bad guys, their houses & places they go too?

list their fax numbers, phone numbers emails?

list bank account info?

Ammar

Interesting. I think there are people who are working on this matter at this stage. I'll follow up on it.

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