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December 27, 2006

Comments

Leila

Have you looked at your son's blog lately?

It's all innocent teenage stuff I guess, but really, do you truly want to have the link up for the world to browse? He seems to have posted all the conversations with his female friends - their side only, not his. ??? Call me old-fashioned (and if you knew my history, you wouldn't) but it seems a little strange to have the boy's personal conversations so publicly available. Your daughter's site is protected from public view.

Just saying.

Looking forward to reading your blog more.

Battal Agha

A complete rational analysis of the situation. Very much to the point. My only regret is that few people have such a crystal clear view.

Ghassan Karam

"Syria cannot make peace with anyone ... until it first makes peace with itself". How true , how true.

Unfortunately logic is not the strong point of those who wrote the Iraq Study Report or of many who advocate seeking a Middle Eastern solution by placating the Syrian tyrant. A solution , if it is to be everlasting, will not be tailored to meet the wishes of a dictator but will be based on the merits of the case. There is no doubt that a comprehensive Arab-Israeli solution will mean dealing with all the parties to the conflict, including Syria but that does not imply that one should prop up the Baath regime.

The current Syrian regime, as Ammar points out, has been transformed into essentially an outpost of Tehran. Media reports have even speculated that the recent shopping trip by Bashar to Moscow was financed by a $600 million check from Iran. The Syrian Baath has sold itself to Tehran in an attempt to counter the isolation imposed on it by the international community. What it has actually accomplished is nothing short of a faustian bargain. The "Boy King" of Damascus cannot deliver on anything without the approval of his masters and so dealing with him is a waste of time. The artificial life support mechanism of the Syrian Baath cannot function forever. As the conditions in the region change, and they will, the isolation of this most undemocratic bunch will increase and its disconnect with the Syrian population will deepen. Its fall from grace is only a question of time and neither John Kerry nor David Duke can do anything about that.

What is "Occupation"

it's time to start posting who the leaders of the assad clan are, where they live, pictures of thier houses, the resturants they visit, thier doctors, thier mother's homes, thier girlfriends, post maps of the streets they live on...

time to post on the net these photos, plus more, any information that tells us where thier kids live, which businesses are thiers as stolen booty..

expose them...

let the people of syria KNOW that that car dealership is owned by some evil shit..

and if it's PUBLIC info already, all the better

Anonymous

Bravo for your frankness

howie

Ammar-

Kind of a lame question perhaps...but my knowledge of the non-Baath side of Syria is limited.

Who are the main groups, what are their relationships like...is their a potential Balkans or Lebanon brewing in Syria. I know there are Christians, Druse but know little else.

I do remember Hama very well and Papa Assad's manner of handling Mulsim fundementalism...but if the lid of the Assads tyranny is ripped off...what might follow?

What is "Occupation"

but if the lid of the Assads tyranny is ripped off...what might follow?

can we predict islamic nutjobs?

Anonymous

I will offer an answer to Howie,
If Assad goes through a coup, there will be a military government. Syria's ties with Iran will be severed and Iraq's stabilization becomes closer to reality. Syria's relations with its Arab neighbors will then be restored. Syria will then become a real partner for peace in the Middle East. Only Egypt and Jordan were able to deal peace with Israel. Unlike many predictions, the deals lasted and they seem to continue to hold. As you may know, these regimes represent a solid constituency. So they can deliver on what they sign on. Syria's regime does not have real constituency in Syria. Therefore, it cannot deliver on any of its promises. Its only means of survival are subservience to some foreign power (Russia during cold war and currently Iran) and troublemaking in neighboring countries.

Anonymous

When Sadat decided to negotiate peace with Israel, Egypt was still considered a client state of the Soviet Union. Had fought several wars with Israel. Israel had many concerns including security, public opinion and settelements on the mediteranian and the red seas.
Sadat's policies were not all that popular (he was later assasinated).
Israel had developed oil fields on and offshore in the peninsula and had developed tourist resorts on the red sea.
The obstacles to peace and the return of Egyptian occupied lands looked a lot more difficult to achieve back then than what we have between Isreal and Syria currently.
It took leaders like Sadat, Beigen and Carter and serious negotiations to produce the tangible result.
I think today in Syria President Bashar Assad is liked and respected by the Syrian people way more than what President Sadat had to deal with from the Egyptian people.
The USA had to provide security garanties and generous compensations for the uprooting of the sttelements and turning over the oil fields to Egypt.
Even if Olmert were to become motivated and acquire a vision for peace with Syria, the missing ingredient is an agressive US approach that will bridge the divide and provide creative solutions, backed with security garanties and generous compensations.
If the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel were to be conditional upon the dissidents views of Sadat, there would have been no peace agreement.

Anonymous

Sadat wouldn't have dreamed of going to Israel if he didn't have the solid backing from the majority of Egyptians. Egypt currently receives a trickle of the amount promised by the US and peace has still the solid backing of the people of Egypt. Peace even survived the assassination of Sadat himself. So it was not US guaranties and it wasn't US compensations. It was the desire of the people which Sadat read correctly. Bashar is not popular among Syrians. He is ruling through vicious security apparatus and Iranian backing. Without these two ingredients, He cannot last 24 hours as dictator of Syria. Only last week there were some major civil disturbances in Aleppo after another round in Qamishli in October. He knows he cannot negotiate peace and he also knows he cannot deliver on his promises. Not even Hafiz could have delivered on his signature and that's why he bolted in the last minute. Only changing the current Syrian regime will lead to stability and eventually peace in the Middle East.

Ammar

Anonymous 12:51 AM

Sadat did not suffer from the handicaps that plague Assads. He did not have a continuous UN inquiry into his affairs, his personal business interests were not intimately linked to a certain patronage system that could not be reinvented (the Egyptian system was somewhat more sophisticated and flexible), he did not have to establish his militant (if not downright military) credentials, because that was already done, and he did not come from a small religious sect that was and continues to be manipulated for the sake of maintaining the regime in power.

You were indeed right in noting that the obstacles for peace between Israel and Egypt were much more than those between Syria and Israel, but only to a certain extant. For, in the final analysis, Hafiz al-Assad did not go to Camp David nor approved of the Egyptian-Israeli peace, for some of the very reasons just mentioned.

Sadat did get assassinated, but the Egyptian government never had to kill 20,000 people of its citizens in a span of a short month to stay in power even at the height of its crackdown against the Islamists. The Assads did. The Assads could not have handled peace in 1978, and they cannot handle it now. Yes, they did come close to concluding peace in 2000, but then, the whole peace process was taking place in the context of the end of the Cold War and Syria’s emergence from a long period of isolation, the entire population in Syria, Sunnis and Alawites alike, was looking forward to a new beginning. It did not happen. That moment has long gone now. There is enough blame to go around for this true, but, it is also established that Assad Sr. did walk out on Clinton in Geneva in 2000, because he grew impatient and tried, and because his concerns for maintaining the Alawite regime were of far greater significance at that stage.

The Sunni-Alawi Divide is a real issue in Syrian affairs, it may lie dormant now, but this has been accomplished only after very a bloody crackdown by Syrian standards, and the wounds are still festering, because none of the issues was ever resolved.

Ammar

Howie, and "What is Occupation" Islamic nutjobs are bound to have a lot of influence on life in Syria with or without the Assads, the very policies and the minoritarian character of the Assads have assured that. But it is far from a given. Islamist domination of Syria will be bad for business, and the Syrian business community knows it, between an army that will remain predominantly Alawite for the foreseeable future, the presence of other minorities in the country, including Druzes, Christians and Kurds, the secular-minded Sunnis, and they are legion, albeit disorganized, the Baath Party itself, which the opposition does not want to outlaw in itself, only its monopoly, and the fractious nature of the Islamists movements themselves, I think Syria has a good chance of steering a course far from Islamist domination, though, it will grow more socially conservative.

Leila, if I removed the link to Mouhanad’s blog, he won’t like it. It is there due to his insistence. He likes fame, after all, he plans to be the one to follow in his grandmother’s footsteps and become an actor.

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