International Herald Tribune
By Hassan M. Fattah
May 25, 2007 
DAMASCUS: Inside the tent, the trappings of a modern election campaign were on display - jingles playing, flags waving, confetti coating the floor and posters of President Bashar al-Assad hanging near the stage.
Outside, however, Syria's realities were evident. Government security men manhandled anyone trying to come in and blocked reporters from covering the rally - one of several held across the country recently - funded by one of Syria's most powerful oligarchs. The sparse crowd hinted at growing popular fear of the future, and apathy about Syrian politics.
Only a year ago, Assad faced so many troubles that some Syrians began questioning his political survival.
His troops had been forced out of Lebanon, his government faced allegations of collusion in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon, and the Bush administration had imposed sanctions that affected everything from the fleet of Boeings in Syria's national airline to medical equipment used in hospitals. Waning oil reserves hinted at economic collapse and the European Union delayed signing a much-needed trade agreement.
But as he prepares to be overwhelmingly "re-elected" on Sunday to a second seven-year term, Assad seems very much in control, with his rivals isolated, his critics increasingly in prison or fearing retribution, and international pressure having eased significantly.
He has consolidated power around his immediate family and rewarded those who have been loyal. He has continued to reap the benefits of Washington's troubles in the region. And in Lebanon, Syrian-backed unrest is growing.
"Syria has a great deal of confidence now," said Abdel Fattah Al-Awad, editor in chief of the government-run newspaper Al Thawra. "The country is convinced that the major pressures that once faced us have disappeared. We want to offer security - that's what we offer. The Americans, they offer Iraq, which is chaos."
Assad came to power seven years ago on a wave of optimism, promising to bring change and to rule differently than his iron-fisted father, Hafez, did. But as he prepares for another term in a so-called national referendum, Assad has increasingly begun to emulate his father.
Where political campaigners openly called for change several years ago, today many have landed in jail in a government crackdown on dissent. Others have shrunk from public life.
Few Syrians would even speak on the record for this article, fearing reprisal.
Assad once focused his speeches on reform and economic development; today he speaks of security and stability. A small group of businessmen close to him have cornered the majority of Syria's economy. Some foreign investors from the Gulf, encouraged to invest in Syria, have found themselves mired in webs of corruption that have delayed their projects.
"The Bashar of 2000 was a young, new leader who embodied the promise of change," said Emile Hokayem, a research fellow at The Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington. "As he prepares for a new term, there is more repression in Syria, a hardening of the regime's stands, and little movement on economic reform. Syria's ills are as acute as they were seven years ago."
Most of all, Assad has sought to prove to Syrians that he is a survivor, like his father, who brought stability to Syria under the Baath party, but dominated almost every part of society through a network of omnipresent informants and the dreaded secret police, known as the Mukhabarat. The elder Assad held his grip over the country for 32 years under an authoritarian government that not only helped end Lebanon's civil war but also put Syria in control over its politics and economy.
"We used to say he was not as clever as his father," said one respected doctor in Damascus, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. "But now things are different. I wasn't so confident of him before, but he has gained good experience."
Assad made three critical bets that proved successful, analysts here say. He bet that the U.S. occupation of Iraq would falter, hampered in part by Syria's funneling of militants to Iraq, and that Syria would become a critical part of any effort to stabilize the country.
He maintained support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, which, when it survived a war with Israel last year, became a powerful Lebanese force that could spoil American ambitions in that country and further define Syria as a power that must be dealt with. And just as important, he maintained support for Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups, ensuring a Syrian role in any future Israeli-Arab peace effort.
Syria's alliance with Iran, too, brought needed economic and political support and made Syria an important go-between to Iran. When British marines in southern Iraq were taken hostage by the Iranians recently, the Syrians played an important part in getting them released.
Soon European officials and, later, American congressional delegations, including the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, began visiting Damascus, chipping away at America's isolation policy.
When Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke with her Syrian counterpart, Walid al Moallem, on the sidelines of an Iraq conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, the Syrians quickly painted the 30-minute meeting as a strategic victory. Though little was discussed, the meeting's symbolism was critical.
"Whoever wants to isolate Syria is in fact isolating himself from the region's issues, because Syria has a rightful role," Assad said in a speech before Parliament last week, appearing confidant and defiant. The Bush administration's attempt to isolate the country, he said, "has seen nothing but failure."
Critics fear that an emboldened government will become even more repressive and reliant on its security apparatus. After years of tolerating the fractious opposition movement, the government cracked down on opposition figures last year, hoping to turn several prominent figures into examples, opposition campaigners say.
On Sunday, a court sentenced four, including Michel Kilo, a prominent Syrian writer and columnist, to three years in prison for "spreading false news, weakening national feeling and inciting sectarian sentiments." Kilo was arrested after signing the so-called Beirut-Damascus Declaration, which calls on Syria to respect Lebanon's territorial integrity.
Two other activists, Suleiman Shummar and Khalil Hussein, were sentenced in absentia to 10 years in jail on similar charges.
Just a few days earlier a court sentenced Kamal Labawani, a Syrian physician and opposition leader, to 15 years for "communicating with a foreign country and inciting it to initiate aggression against Syria" after he met with Bush officials in Washington. And early last month, a court sentenced a human rights lawyer, Anwar al Bunni, to 5 years in jail, also for "spreading false news" about Syria.
They all languish together with an estimated 3,000 other political prisoners still in Syrian prisons.
The government still has much to fear, however. Despite Syrian efforts to stymie the establishment of a United Nations-backed tribunal in Lebanon to try suspects connected to the assassination of Hariri, deliberations about the court continue. The Syrians fear that the tribunal could call on senior regime figures to testify or, worse, to indict them.
On Monday, Lebanon's prime minister, Fouad Siniora, requested that the UN Security Council proceed to create the tribunal despite objections from Lebanon's opposition, which has refused to hold a session of Parliament to vote on a Lebanese plan to establish the court.
The government has also been under pressure to show some form of change domestically. A successful boycott of parliamentary elections last month, fueled by political apathy, resulted in low turnout that both embarrassed the government and put the legitimacy of the body in question, analysts say. Assad's allies intend to make sure that the same is not repeated in the national referendum.
Meanwhile, a continuing flood of Iraqi refugees has also strained Syria's economy, costing the country up to $2 billion a year in subsidies and expenses.
Many expect the referendum to be a turning point, but they differ on its direction. Some hope that Assad will begin reforms and pardon the jailed reformers; others fear that the referendum will further embolden the government to take an even tougher line domestically and cement its position.
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